Today on The Dammage Report #FightNightRecap #UFC188 edition I explained what I meant when I said I "had a feeling" that Fabricio Werdum would beat Cain Velasquez.
If you saw my posts just prior to the PPV portion of the fight card beginning I explained a little about what it was that caused me to come to the conclusion I did. Between last night & on the show earlier today I briefly explained why the altitude was the major factor why I knew Cain wouldn't win... here is a more detailed post letting you know why this was the reason Werdum won the fight.
Almost any other location for this fight most likely means Cain wins the fight... but because UFC 188 was in Mexico City (at 7,900ft above sea level) what normally is Cain's advantage becomes a fatal flaw in his game-plan.
Cain has been the best Heavyweight in MMA for the past 5 years because of his HUGE advantage in cardio. This allows him to have a furious pace & high output of strikers - even for a fight going the full 5 rounds. Opponents just can't match his pace or output, especially over a five round 25 minute fight.
Normally it is a "pick your poison" situation when you fight Velasquez... do you get taken out by his standing attack, or do you lose because of his wrestling takedowns & ground-and-pound - but last night wasn't a normal situation.
Cain trains in San Jose, CA - which is at sea level. Almost ever other location for UFC events is at or near sea level, so Cain has a distinct advantage. But Mexico City is not sea level... so the "gas tank" that Cain normally has is essentially negated when you fight more than a mile above his normal training elevation.
But that is just one aspect of why Cain wasn't going to win the fight. The other reason why he lost was because his coach (Javier Mendez) either completely failed to realize how the severe elevation would effect Cain's performance, or he was so confident that Cain would be able to do what he has always been able to do (because of the advantage of his cardio) that Mendez didn't even consider having a "back-up plan" to deal with any negative effects the severe elevation might have on Velasquez's performance in Mexico City.
The reason I blame Javier Mendez is because of how late in the training camp they chose to have Cain arrive in Mexico City to prepare for the fight.
Is it no secret that the way to deal with fighting at an elevation like 7,900ft is to acclimate your fighter to that elevation by arriving on location as far in advance before fight night as possible.
If you look back you will see that I locked in my pick for Werdum a week before UFC 188 was to happen... this was not by accident. I already knew that Werdum had been in Mexico City for several weeks (almost 2 months) to fully acclimate to the elevation and to maximize his performance potential.
In contrast to Werdum arriving way early the Velasquez camp didn't arrive in Mexico until the week before the fight. While this might seem like enough time to overcome the difference in altitude between San Jose & Mexico City, it wasn't.
The reason it wasn't enough time was because Mendez didn't change the game-plan that Cain usually has for his fights. But the combination of high pace and high output at high altitude without proper/full preparation was destined to end exactly the way it did last night.
I was posting how I felt the experience of Werdum would be an advantage for him... and it seems like he was being the smarter fighter last night.
While his coach was screaming at him for more action - even at the pace this fight had - Fabricio seemed to be pacing himself, and if he was doing this intentionally it was exactly the right thing to do.
Cain started off with some success, as was to be expected. He was fresh & had tons of energy... and he scored some solid strikes for the first minute. But as that first round continued with Cain keeping with the "fast pace, high output" game-plan his strength & power were quickly decreasing.
Halfway through that first round it was clear that while Cain was slowing down, Werdum wasn't looking tired at all. And as the second round was progressing it should have been come clear to Mendez that they needed to come up with something else because going with the usual game-plan wasn't going to work this time.
But Mendez wasn't giving Cain good advice - and in between rounds 2 & 3 he told Cain that he wanted Velasquez to take the fight to the ground. Why Javier thought it was a good idea for Cain to willingly take the fight where Werdum has a huge advantage because of his BJJ skills is a mystery.
Had Cain been at full strength it might have been OK, but Mendez should have seen that his fighter was basically just going through the motions as the second round was ending. Cain had almost zero power in his punches & kicks, and if he did manage to get a takedown he couldn't keep Werdum at a disadvantageous position.
Give Cain credit for not giving up. His will was trying to keep him going, but his body was failing him in that effort. You could see as the 3rd round began that it was only a matter of time before Fabricio was going to win the fight... it wasn't IF it was WHEN and HOW.
Werdum remained calm & executed his game-plan perfectly. He was picking Cain apart and he seemed to have full strength while Velasquez was getting wobbled with every significant strike exchange.
Even when Cain landed a high kick (that would normally rock his opponent) it had almost no effect on Werdum, except in Rogan's mind. Joe was screaming as if Velasquez has snatched victory from the edge of defeat... but really it was the beginning of the end for Cain.
Velasquez was grasping at anything that might pull out the win for him, and rushing in for a weak takedown ended up being Werdum securing the guillotine, and Velasquez went form having a glimmer of hope to needing to tapout because Fabricio locked in the choke & won the fight.
My "feeling" was that after finding out how late Cain arrived in Mexico City I expected that he would quickly run out of power/strength but that he would still keep trying to win the way he usually does. I knew that if they still went with the "fast pace/high output" game-plan all Fabricio had to do was weather the attack until the high altitude sapped everything from Velasquez and it was a matter of time before Werdum would find an opening to finish the fight.
It should have been something that Javier Mendez should have expected, and could have worked to avoid... but he was over-confident in Cain's ability or some similar reasoning, and because Mendez didn't even consider that Werdum COULD win the fight, he didn't properly prepare Cain for any possibility - and that resulted in Cain not having every opportunity to win.
The moment I saw Cain first slowing down I knew it was over. He was basically spent by the end of the 2nd round... and he had nothing to offer as a serious attack for the 3rd round. And because it wasn't going to get better for him as the fight progressed, the best Velasquez could have hoped for was a quicker ending that didn't mean he would take too much damage.
That might not seem like the "best" thing for Cain, but it is. It would mean that he might not have a long recover period (or lengthy mandatory medical suspension) and Velasquez might be able to return to the Octagon soon & hopefully get back to a title shot sooner rather than later. (which would be the case if the fight had lasted longer and/or Cain had taken more damage)
Usually Dana White likes automatic rematches when the champ loses... but I don't think he's going to do that in this situation. It is more likely that instead of Werdum/Velasquez II I think the UFC might book the rematch between the champ & the #1 contender in the UFC rankings (as of fight time last night) Junior dos Santos.
This is a possibility because JDS defeated Werdum when they fought... but more likely is that we will see Werdum, Vs. Stipe Miocic because that is the fight most fans probably want to see next.
Last night was a great fight to unify the UFC Heavyweight title... and I look forward to a rematch between Cain & Fabricio.
I stand by my assessment that if this fight happened anywhere else except where it did (and maybe Denver and Albuquerque) Cain would probably win, but it most likely goes the distance. I also stand by my assessment that Cain probably wins 3 times out of 4... and because of a combination of the Altitude & Mendez not fully preparing Cain for this fight in this city it could only end with Werdum winning.
That is why I knew who would win... and so many people either didn't see what I saw, or weren't open to the possibilities I knew were not unreasonable, given the circumstances.
Cain is still bad-ass... but last night wasn't going to be his night. But it didn't have to be that way if his coach had not been blinded with overconfidence. Hopefully Javier Mendez learns from this huge mistake he made at the expense of his fighter.
If you saw my posts just prior to the PPV portion of the fight card beginning I explained a little about what it was that caused me to come to the conclusion I did. Between last night & on the show earlier today I briefly explained why the altitude was the major factor why I knew Cain wouldn't win... here is a more detailed post letting you know why this was the reason Werdum won the fight.
Almost any other location for this fight most likely means Cain wins the fight... but because UFC 188 was in Mexico City (at 7,900ft above sea level) what normally is Cain's advantage becomes a fatal flaw in his game-plan.
Cain has been the best Heavyweight in MMA for the past 5 years because of his HUGE advantage in cardio. This allows him to have a furious pace & high output of strikers - even for a fight going the full 5 rounds. Opponents just can't match his pace or output, especially over a five round 25 minute fight.
Normally it is a "pick your poison" situation when you fight Velasquez... do you get taken out by his standing attack, or do you lose because of his wrestling takedowns & ground-and-pound - but last night wasn't a normal situation.
Cain trains in San Jose, CA - which is at sea level. Almost ever other location for UFC events is at or near sea level, so Cain has a distinct advantage. But Mexico City is not sea level... so the "gas tank" that Cain normally has is essentially negated when you fight more than a mile above his normal training elevation.
But that is just one aspect of why Cain wasn't going to win the fight. The other reason why he lost was because his coach (Javier Mendez) either completely failed to realize how the severe elevation would effect Cain's performance, or he was so confident that Cain would be able to do what he has always been able to do (because of the advantage of his cardio) that Mendez didn't even consider having a "back-up plan" to deal with any negative effects the severe elevation might have on Velasquez's performance in Mexico City.
The reason I blame Javier Mendez is because of how late in the training camp they chose to have Cain arrive in Mexico City to prepare for the fight.
Is it no secret that the way to deal with fighting at an elevation like 7,900ft is to acclimate your fighter to that elevation by arriving on location as far in advance before fight night as possible.
If you look back you will see that I locked in my pick for Werdum a week before UFC 188 was to happen... this was not by accident. I already knew that Werdum had been in Mexico City for several weeks (almost 2 months) to fully acclimate to the elevation and to maximize his performance potential.
In contrast to Werdum arriving way early the Velasquez camp didn't arrive in Mexico until the week before the fight. While this might seem like enough time to overcome the difference in altitude between San Jose & Mexico City, it wasn't.
The reason it wasn't enough time was because Mendez didn't change the game-plan that Cain usually has for his fights. But the combination of high pace and high output at high altitude without proper/full preparation was destined to end exactly the way it did last night.
I was posting how I felt the experience of Werdum would be an advantage for him... and it seems like he was being the smarter fighter last night.
While his coach was screaming at him for more action - even at the pace this fight had - Fabricio seemed to be pacing himself, and if he was doing this intentionally it was exactly the right thing to do.
Cain started off with some success, as was to be expected. He was fresh & had tons of energy... and he scored some solid strikes for the first minute. But as that first round continued with Cain keeping with the "fast pace, high output" game-plan his strength & power were quickly decreasing.
Halfway through that first round it was clear that while Cain was slowing down, Werdum wasn't looking tired at all. And as the second round was progressing it should have been come clear to Mendez that they needed to come up with something else because going with the usual game-plan wasn't going to work this time.
But Mendez wasn't giving Cain good advice - and in between rounds 2 & 3 he told Cain that he wanted Velasquez to take the fight to the ground. Why Javier thought it was a good idea for Cain to willingly take the fight where Werdum has a huge advantage because of his BJJ skills is a mystery.
Had Cain been at full strength it might have been OK, but Mendez should have seen that his fighter was basically just going through the motions as the second round was ending. Cain had almost zero power in his punches & kicks, and if he did manage to get a takedown he couldn't keep Werdum at a disadvantageous position.
Give Cain credit for not giving up. His will was trying to keep him going, but his body was failing him in that effort. You could see as the 3rd round began that it was only a matter of time before Fabricio was going to win the fight... it wasn't IF it was WHEN and HOW.
Werdum remained calm & executed his game-plan perfectly. He was picking Cain apart and he seemed to have full strength while Velasquez was getting wobbled with every significant strike exchange.
Even when Cain landed a high kick (that would normally rock his opponent) it had almost no effect on Werdum, except in Rogan's mind. Joe was screaming as if Velasquez has snatched victory from the edge of defeat... but really it was the beginning of the end for Cain.
Velasquez was grasping at anything that might pull out the win for him, and rushing in for a weak takedown ended up being Werdum securing the guillotine, and Velasquez went form having a glimmer of hope to needing to tapout because Fabricio locked in the choke & won the fight.
My "feeling" was that after finding out how late Cain arrived in Mexico City I expected that he would quickly run out of power/strength but that he would still keep trying to win the way he usually does. I knew that if they still went with the "fast pace/high output" game-plan all Fabricio had to do was weather the attack until the high altitude sapped everything from Velasquez and it was a matter of time before Werdum would find an opening to finish the fight.
It should have been something that Javier Mendez should have expected, and could have worked to avoid... but he was over-confident in Cain's ability or some similar reasoning, and because Mendez didn't even consider that Werdum COULD win the fight, he didn't properly prepare Cain for any possibility - and that resulted in Cain not having every opportunity to win.
The moment I saw Cain first slowing down I knew it was over. He was basically spent by the end of the 2nd round... and he had nothing to offer as a serious attack for the 3rd round. And because it wasn't going to get better for him as the fight progressed, the best Velasquez could have hoped for was a quicker ending that didn't mean he would take too much damage.
That might not seem like the "best" thing for Cain, but it is. It would mean that he might not have a long recover period (or lengthy mandatory medical suspension) and Velasquez might be able to return to the Octagon soon & hopefully get back to a title shot sooner rather than later. (which would be the case if the fight had lasted longer and/or Cain had taken more damage)
Usually Dana White likes automatic rematches when the champ loses... but I don't think he's going to do that in this situation. It is more likely that instead of Werdum/Velasquez II I think the UFC might book the rematch between the champ & the #1 contender in the UFC rankings (as of fight time last night) Junior dos Santos.
This is a possibility because JDS defeated Werdum when they fought... but more likely is that we will see Werdum, Vs. Stipe Miocic because that is the fight most fans probably want to see next.
Last night was a great fight to unify the UFC Heavyweight title... and I look forward to a rematch between Cain & Fabricio.
I stand by my assessment that if this fight happened anywhere else except where it did (and maybe Denver and Albuquerque) Cain would probably win, but it most likely goes the distance. I also stand by my assessment that Cain probably wins 3 times out of 4... and because of a combination of the Altitude & Mendez not fully preparing Cain for this fight in this city it could only end with Werdum winning.
That is why I knew who would win... and so many people either didn't see what I saw, or weren't open to the possibilities I knew were not unreasonable, given the circumstances.
Cain is still bad-ass... but last night wasn't going to be his night. But it didn't have to be that way if his coach had not been blinded with overconfidence. Hopefully Javier Mendez learns from this huge mistake he made at the expense of his fighter.
